After a turbulent 2023 — marked by 5% GDP growth, low interest rates, and pressure on the dong — Vietnam enters 2024 with optimism tempered by caution. Fiscal stimulus and soft monetary policy are expected to drive recovery, but global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in inflation control could shape outcomes.
Five financial experts interviewed by Bloomberg Businessweek Vietnam agree: the economy will recover, but selectively. Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, supported by low valuations (VN-Index P/B at 1.5x, near historic lows) and profit growth expectations of 20–22% among listed firms. Sectors like banking, retail, consumer goods, aviation, and technology are poised to rebound, while public investment, exports, and renewable energy will benefit from foreign capital inflows.
Deposits are viewed as a liquidity buffer rather than an investment channel, and corporate bonds remain high-risk given lingering defaults. Real estate may recover in the second half of the year, particularly mid-range housing, but legal and credit constraints persist. Experts also highlight diversification and risk control as essential in a low-rate, high-volatility environment — a reminder that in 2024, investors should never “put all their eggs in one basket.”
This article is a condensed and translated summary (original in Vietnamese, VN) of a feature published in the January 2024 issue of Bloomberg Businessweek Vietnam.